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Forecast scenarios for the development of the coal industry of Ukraine

Makarov V.M., PhD (Engin.), Hcerbina E.V., PhD (Engin.), Krysanov D.V., PhD (Engin.)
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha str., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian
Source: The Problems of General Energy, 2020, 2(61):4-10
https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2020.02.004
Section: Systemic studies and complex problems of the energy sector
UDC: 622.232
Received: 10.03.2020
Published: 15.07.2020

Abstract:

The situation in the Ukrainian coal industry in recent years, besides the fact that it was complicated by the hostilities in eastern Ukraine, is caused by a number of economic and technological factors.
The public sector of Ukraine's coal industry is now in the critical state both technically, economically, and socially. The main factor that hinders and impedes the development of this branch of industry is the insufficient amount of funds for its technical re-equipment, which at present does not provide an opportunity to ensure the advanced commissioning of production facilities.
At these circumstances, it is interesting to determine the potential of coal production for different scenarios of the development of coal industry.
Bringing its enterprises to the level of profitability requires the implementation of measures for the reconstruction and modernization of state-owned enterprises of the mine fund, which are currently located at the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
We have developed four forecast scenarios for the development of the coal industry of Ukraine, which take into account the factors of occupation of a part of the Donbass territories and optimal strategies for the modernization of coal industry for improving the productivity of mining enterprises.
The forecast scenarios take into account the work of promising mines, the reconstruction and development of the brown-coal complex, as well as the construction of new mines only at territories controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
The maximal coal production 63.2 million t. per year will be reached in 2035 under the first scenario and the minimal production of 36.4 million t. per year under the fourth scenario in 2040.

Keywords: coal industry, forecast, scenario, development, strategy

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