Prediction of the levels of development of coal industry with regard for risks and critical phenomena in the structure of its productive potential in the global coal market

Bilan T.R., PhD (Engin.), https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0280-6716 ,
Makarov V.M., PhD (Engin.), https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1068-5923 ,
Kaplin M.I., PhD (Engin.), https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9328-4257
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha str., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian
Source: The Problems of General Energy, 2019, 1(56):12-18
https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2019.01.012
Section: Scientific foundations of the development and optimization of fuel-and-energy balances
UDC: 004.942:620.9
Received: 01.02.2019
Published: 29.03.2019

Abstract:

One of the main directions of increasing the level of energy security of Ukraine lies in the growing role of domestic coal industry in meeting the needs of economy in energy resources. For this purpose, it is necessary to create conditions that will enhance the efficiency of operation of the industry and its competitiveness as well as ensure the economic feasibility of investing.
Based on analysis of the state and prospects of the development of coal-industry enterprises, which are currently on the temporarily occupied territories of Donets’k and Luhans’k regions, we calculated the predictive volumes of coal production in Ukraine up to 2040. We also proposed scenarios of the coal-industry development with regard for risks and critical phenomena in the structure of its productive potential.
In order to solve the problem of determining the optimal volumes and directions of coal supply in a competitive environment, we propose a balance-optimization model of coal supply of the country, which takes into account the differentiation of coal products by grades and technological functions, as well as increasing the competitiveness of coal industry through the implementation of measures for the modernization and reconstruction of existing enterprises.
According to the results of calculations, we obtained the economically substantiated volumes of own mining and import of coal by grades and technological purposes under conditions of the world market and formulated the priority directions of providing country's economy with coal products. The main directions here are: modernization of existing and construction of new enterprises, restoration of the work of brown-coal complex, and development of transport infrastructure.

Keywords: coal industry, mining, prediction, world market, energy security.

References:

  1. Bilan T.R. (2017). A balance-optimization model for determining the volume of coal production and import with regard for the influence of reconstruction and modernization on the technical and economic characteristics of functioning of coal mining enterprises. Problemy Zahal’noi Enerhetyky – The Problems of General Energy, 4(51), 15–22 [in Ukrainian]. https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2017.04.015
  2. Kulyk, M.M., Horbulin, V.P., & Kyrylenko, O.V. (2017). Kontseptualni pidkhody do rozvytku enerhetyky Ukrainy (analitychni materialy). Kyiv: Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine [in Ukrainian].
  3. Makarov, V.M., & Perov, M.O. (2018). Assessment of the state of coal industry in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas. Problemy Zahal’noi Enerhetyky – The Problems of General Energy, 3(54), 16–22 [in Ukrainian]. https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2018.03.016

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