Refinement of the method for predicting the demand for fuel with an assessment of the structural potential of energy saving in the energy sector

Maliarenko O.Ye., PhD (Engin.), Senior Research Scientist, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5882-916X ,
Stanytsina V.V., PhD (Engin.), https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1005-6185
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha str., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian
Source: The Problems of General Energy, 2019, 1(56):19-23
https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2019.01.019
Section: Scientific foundations of the development and optimization of fuel-and-energy balances
UDC: 620.9
Received: 07.02.2019
Published: 29.03.2019

Abstract:

In this paper, the methodical approach to determining the energy saving potential in the course of change in the structure of economy for taking into account its value in finding the predictive demand for fuel and its types has been improved with the change in approach to the formulation of concept of "end-use". We present the algorithm for calculating the structural potential of energy saving for the section "Supply of electricity, gas, steam, and conditioned air", where 99.0% of fuel is used for conversion into other types of energy (electric, thermal). We propose a separate algorithm for calculating the demand for electricity for the section "Electricity supply, etc.", which allowed us to unify the methodological approach to determining this type of energy saving potential for all sections of economy. The refined predictive levels of fuel consumption by types up to 2040 are given.

Keywords: fuel, coal, natural gas, demand, energy saving potential, structural changes.

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