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Methodical approach to the determination of forecasting structure of energy consumption on the basis of a complex method

Malyarenko O.Ye., PhD (Engin.), Senior Research Scientist
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha str., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian
Source: The Problems of General Energy, 2018, 1(52):24-31
https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2018.01.024
Section: Scientific foundations of the development and optimization of fuel-and-energy balances
UDC: 620.9
Received: 14.03.2018
Published: 30.03.2018

Abstract:

An analytical survey of existing methodological approaches to determining the predictive structure of energy consumption is carried out. We consider the application of a complex method in determining the predictive structure of FER with emphasizing the specific features of determination of the parameters of energy efficiency at the levels of the country, types of economic activity, and population. A separate algorithm for calculating the demand for FER for the section "Electricity supply, etc." is proposed with taking into account the forecasting structure of electric and heat sources. We also  give the predicted structures of fuel consumption by type and directions of use and FER over the entire country as well as the production of thermal and electric energy by 2040.

Keywords: fuel, heat and electricity, generating capacity, demand, structure, consumption.

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