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Substantiation of the predictive volumes of energy saving potential in the enlarged sectors of economy with regard for technological and structural changes

Malyarenko O.Ye., PhD (Engin.), Senior Research Scientist, Maistrenko N.Yu., PhD (Engin.), Stanytsina V.V., PhD (Engin.)
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha str., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian
Source: The Problems of General Energy, 2016, 4(47):58-67
https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2016.04.058
Section: Scientific foundations of energy saving and energy-saving policy
UDC: 621.311.183
Received: 07.11.2016
Published: 24.11.2016

Abstract:

We have refined the forecast of gross domestic product for short-, medium- and long-term prospects according to the results of investigations of leading foreign and Ukrainian institutions. We have developed the new predictive structure of economy for the period up to 2040. We have analyzed the general algorithm of determining the economically reasonable energy saving potential and the structure and volumes of the consumption of natural gas, coal and electricity in the enlarged sections of economy and population. We have proposed efficient energy saving measures for energy-intensive types of economic activity.
We have substantiated the predictive macroeconomic parameters and estimated the predictive volumes of saving of coal, natural gas, and electric energy up to 2040 with determining the technological and structural energy saving potential by the types of economic activity and particular technologies. It has been established that the structural factor is the main in the consumption of electricity and affects fuel consumption almost equally with the technological factor.

Keywords: gas intensity, coal intensity, electricity intensity, gross added value, forecast, structure, section of economy.

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