Methodical approach to determining the predictive structure of the consumption of primary fuel

Malyarenko O.Ye., Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Senior Researcher
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha St., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian
Source: Problemy zahal`noi enerhetyky - The Problems of General Energy, 2016, 3(46):28-39
https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2016.03.028
Section: Scientific foundations of the development and optimization of fuel-and-energy balances
UDC: 620.002.8
Received: 10.06.2016
Published: 28.09.2016
Abstract: We have proposed a methodical approach to determining the predictive levels of the consumption of primary fuel with using parameters of the energy intensity of gross added value  of the kinds  of primary fuel by the types of economic activity and specific fuel consumption per person for  population. This approach enables one to determine the predictive structure of fuel consumption for separate types of  economic activity, sectors  of economy, and the county. We have  estimated the predictive amounts of  primary fuel for the future up to 2030.
We have determined the predictive fuel saving for the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios and the amount of  possible substitution of natural gas in the energy sector of the country.
We present the predictive calculated amounts of final fuel consumption  bu aggregated types of  economic activity and population for two scenarios and the amounts of predictive fuel consumption in the energy sector by the types of electricity- and heat-generating sources.
Keywords: primary fuel, gas intensity, oil intensity, coal intensity, fuel intensity, gross added value, prediction, structure.
References:
1. Metodolohichni polozhennia iz formuvannia enerhetychnoho balansu. Retrieved from http://www.lv.ukrstat.gov.ua/ukr/themes/24/metod_374.pdf [in Ukrainian].
2. Piriashvili, B.Z., Voronchuk, M.M., Halynovskii, E.Y., Chirkyn, B.P., & Shchepets, O.Y. (2008). Imitatsionnoe modelirovanie v enerhetike. B.M. Danilishin (Ed.). Kyiv: Naukova dumka [in Russian].
3. Enerhetychna stratehiia Ukrainy do 2030 r. redaktsii 2013 r. Retrieved from http://www.energoatom.kiev.ua/ua/about/strategy_2030/ [in Ukrainian].
4. Malyarenko, O.Ye., & Maystrenko, N.Yu. (2015). Forecasting fuel and energy consumption levels taking into account energy saving potential in the context of structural changes in the economy. Problemy zagal'noi energetyky - The Problems of General Energy, 2 (41), 5-13 [in Ukrainian]. https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2015.02.005
5. Heyts, V.M. et al (Eds). (2009). Sotsial'no-ekonomichnyi stan Ukrainy: naslidky dlia narodu ta derzhavy. Natsional'na dopovid'. Kyiv: NVTs NBUV [in Ukrainian].
6. Forma statystychnoi zvitnosti №4-MTP “Zvit pro zalyshky i vykorystannia palyva ta pal'no-mastyl'nykh materialiv” (richna). (2013). Kyiv: State Statistics Service of Ukraine [in Ukrainian].
7. Malyarenko, O.Ye. (Nauk. ker.). (2015). Rozvytok teoretychnykh zasad ta rozroblennia metodiv i zasobiv prohnozuvannia potreby v enerhetychnykh resursakh z urakhuvanniam strukturnykh i tekhnolohichnykh zrushen'. Zvit pro NDR: DR №0113U001133, Inv. № 0716U000186 . Kyiv: Іnstytut zagal'noi energetyky NAN Ukrainy [in Ukrainian].
8.Malyarenko, O.Ye., Maystrenko, N.Yu., & Stanytsina, V.V. (2015). Advanced technical approach to identify appropriate energy saving potential in energy-intensive economic activities]. Problemy zagal'noi energetyky - The Problems of General Energy, 3 (42), 23-30 [in Ukrainian]. https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2015.03.023
9. Malyarenko, E.E., & Maystrenko, N.Yu. (2015). Pokazateli enerheticheskoi effektivnosti i opredelenie potentsiala enerhozberezheniia v promyshlennykh tekhnolohiiakh. Enerhotekhnolohii i resursosberezhenie, 3. 18-28 [in Russian].
10. Forma statystychnoyi zvitnosti №11-MTP «Zvit pro rezul'taty vykorystannia palyva, teploenerhii i elektroenerhii» (richna). (2013). Kyiv: State Statistics Service of Ukraine [in Ukrainian].
11. Enerhetychnyi balans Ukrainy za 2013 r. Retrieved from http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].