Mathematical model of development forecast of heating systems in the country

Kuts G.A., Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Senior Researcher
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha St., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian
Source: Problemy zahal`noi enerhetyky - The Problems of General Energy, 2015, 3(42):17-22
https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2015.03.017
Section: Mathematical modeling of energy facilities and systems
UDC: 621.31
Received: 09.09.2015
Published: 05.11.2015
Abstract: Creation of heat supply systems over the forecast period is connected to the problem solution on changing the structure of heat generating sources having a higher technical and economic operating indicators in providing quality and reliable thermal energy for consumers in different areas of their activity. To solve this problem a mathematical model was developed that meets the equation between consumers’ demand for thermal energy through their heat load and offers from system of heat generating sources. Forecast levels of consumers’ demand for thermal energy in scopes of application (heating, forced ventilation, hot water) was calculated according to the norms of specific consumption of heat per measurement unit. Averaged standards of specific heat consumption are given in the current regulations (KTM204 Ukraine, DBN) and others. To calculate predictive algorithms levels of heat introduced the factors, which take into account the reduction in norms of specific heat consumption due to implementation of energy efficiency measures, was included into calculation algorithms of forecast levels.
According to the calculations of heat energy demand forecast levels the structure of heat-generating sources of heat supply systems can be formed and its thermal capacity can be determined. When selecting the structure of sources the factors are taken into account, such as changes in cost of natural gas, external and domestic industry competition, stat heating system reliability status throughout the chain from production to final consumption.
For example, using the algorithms of mathematical model the annual specific consumption of thermal energy according to types of consumption for the period until 2035 was calculated.
In closed form the algorithm of mathematical model has been simplified by introduction of generalized factors, which values are given in the current regulations.
Key words: mathematical model, heating supply system, structure of the system, thermal power, heat load, heat-generating source, specific consumption, consumers.
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