Content of collections

Forecasting fuel and energy consumption levels taking into account energy saving potential in the context of structural changes in the economy

Malyarenko O.Ye., PhD (Engin.), Senior Research Scientist, Maistrenko N.Yu.
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha St., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian, English
Source: The Problems of General Energy, 2015, 2(41):5-22
https://doi.org/10.15407/pge2015.02.005
Section: Systemic studies and complex problems of the energy sector
UDC: 620.9
Received: 05.08.2015
Published: 26.08.2015

Abstract:

A methodological approach and a mathematical model are presented to forecast the final consumption of fuel and energy resources taking into account the energy saving potential provided by the structural (inter- and intra-sectoral) changes between the types of economic activities, and the specifics of implementing energy saving measures in Ukraine's production and non-production sector. Consideration is given to the fact that the development of the services sector contributes to curtailing energy consumption in the country, while growth in the production sector requires increased consumption of energy resources and heavy investments in the implementation of new technologies.
Fuel and energy savings resulting from structural changes are estimated  up to 2030 with different options for the forecasted structure of the country's economy in accordance with the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2030 (in the version of 2013) and up to 2035 in accordance with the Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035 designed by the National Institute for Strategic Studies.
Forecasts and calculations regarding final consumption of fuel and energy resources are presented, broken down by consolidated types of economic activity.

Keywords: final consumption of fuel and energy resources, energy saving potential, economic structure.

References:

  1. Maliarenko, O.Ye., Yevtukhova, T.O., & Maistrenko, N.Yu. (2013). Prohnozuvannya zmin kintsevoho spozhyvannya enerhoresursiv z urakhuvannyam strukturnykh i tekhnolohichnykh zrushen' v ekonomitsi [Forecasting of changes in the final energy resources consumption with regard to the structural and technological shifts in the economy of the country]. Problemy zahal`noi enerhetyky - The Problems of General Energy, 4(35), 33-40 [in Ukrainian].
  2. Maliarenko, O.Ye., & Yevtukhova, T.O. (2012). Urakhuvannya tsinovoho faktora pry prohnozuvanni spozhyvannya vuhlevodniv na korotkostrokovu perspektyvu v umovakh hlobalizatsiyi [Account for the price factor at the forecasting of the consumption of hydrocarbons on short term prospects under conditions of the globalization]. Problemy zahal`noi enerhetyky - The Problems of General Energy, 2(29), 12-19 [in Ukrainian].
  3. Kostyukovskiy, B.A., Ruban-Maksimets, O.O., Sas, D.P. & Parasyuk M.V. (2009). Teoretiko-metodologichiskie osnovy prognozirovanija razvitija energetiki v uslovijakh liberalizatsii i globalizatsii mirovoj ekonomiki i internatsionalizatsii ekologicheskich ogranichenij [Theoretical and methodological basis of energy development prediction on conditions of liberalization and globalization of world economics and internationalization of ecological limitations]. Problemy zahal`noi enerhetyky - The Problems of General Energy, 1(19), 31–38 [in Russian].
  4. Gnidoy, M.V. & Ageyeva, T.P. (2004). Vplyv strukturnykh zrushen’ v ekomotsi Ukrayiny na efektyvnist’ vykorystannia enerhoresursiv [Influence of structures displacements in economic of Ukraine on energy efficiency]. Problemy zahal`noi enerhetyky - The Problems of General Energy, 2(11), 7–13 [in Ukrainian].
  5. Maliarenko, Ye.Ye. & Maistrenko, N.Yu. (2014). Issledovanie strukturnykh izmenenij v ekonomike Ukrainy dlja opredelenija potentsiala energosberezhenija [Studying structural changes in Ukraine's economy for the determination of the energy saving potential] Materialy mezhd. nauch.-tekhn. konf. “Energoeffektivnost’-2014” – Minsk: In-t teplo- i massoobmena im. A.V. Lykova NAN Belarusi - Proceedings of the Energy Efficiency 2014 International Scientific and Technical Conference – Minsk: A.V. Lykov Heat and Mass Transfer Institute, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 160–164 [in Russian].
  6. Statistical Reporting Form No. 4-MTP Report on residues and utilization of fuel and lubrication materials (annual) for 2001–2013 [in Ukrainian].
  7. Statistical Reporting Form No. 11-МТP Report on the utilization of fuel, heat and electric power (annual) for 2001–2013 [in Ukrainian].
  8. Posibnyk ta dopovnenia do norm ta vkazivok po normuvanniu vytrat palyva ta teplovoyi enerhii na opalennia zhytlovykh ta hromadskykh sporud, a takozh na hospodarsko-pobutovi potreby v Ukraini [Manual and amendments to standards and guidelines on rationing of fuel and heat energy for heating of residential and public buildings, as well as the domestic needs in Ukraine]. (2001). KTM 204 Ukrainy 244-94 from 2001-04-01. Кyiv: UkrNDIinzhproekt, 2001, 64 [in Ukrainian].
  9. Proektuvannia elektoroobladnannia obiektiv tsyvil’noho pryznachennia [Designing electric equipment for civil facilities].(2003). DBN V.2.5.-23-2003. Кyiv: State Committee of Ukraine for Building and Architecture [in Ukrainian].
  10. Aheieva, T.P. (2002). Metodicheskie osnovy otsenki energosberezhenija i prognozirovanija energopotreblenija v sfere zhylishchnogo i kommunalno-bytovogo obsluzhyvanija naselenija Ukrainy [Methodological fundamentals for the assessment of energy saving and forecasting energy inputs in providing housing and public utility services to Ukrainian population]. Candidate’s thesis. Кiev [in Russian].

Downloads:

Full text (PDF)