Mathematical models and tools for forecasting the development of the coal industry of Ukraine

Stohniy O.V., PhD (Engin.)
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha St., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian
Source: The Problems of General Energy, 2013, 3(34):26-34
Section: Development, organization and functioning of energy markets
UDC: 004.942:622.68
Received: 13.09.2013
Published: 12.11.2013

Abstract:

Since the main factor in the prospect of coal mining are mining and geological conditions that determine the profitability of production , the actual problem of development of coal industry is the problem of optimal choice of a new mining technology technical level for a given geological conditions of individual coal business. Therefore, the models of optimization of complex mining engineering a new technological level and the optimal distribution of load at a given mine coal demand by brands.
The models are implemented in software and information center “Ukrainian Coal” and are capable of optimizing the reconstruction and routine functioning of the sector. The developed software and information complex comparison of variants of reconstruction of mines contains information base of technical parameters of coal mining complexes, capital and operating costs of their implementation. Through a combination of knowledge base with ranking algorithm coal mines on the basis of the proposed multi-criteria approach to solve the problem of technical re-equipment of the mines in the optimal choices by picking coal mining complexes with the use of the criterion of maximum productivity with minimal capital costs for conversion and energy costs in their operation .
Calculations of profit optimization by the coefficients of the new technology of computer time. Identify options for the development of coal assets in Ukraine with the release of the most likely option. In all variants of coal in 2030 will be in the range of 95-110 million tonnes in view of retired capacity. With the commissioning at 0.9 million tones in 2015, 15.0 million tons - in 2020 and 21.6 million tones in 2030, production volumes could reach 115-135 million tons of coal.

Keywords: mathematical model, coal mining, optimization, development.

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