Electricity demand forecasting using UP-DOWN method

Sas D.P.
Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 172 Antonovycha St., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine
Language: Ukrainian
Source: The Problems of General Energy, 2013, 3(34):11-16
Section: Systemic studies and complex problems of the energy sector
UDC: 620.9
Received: 25.10.2013
Published: 12.11.2013

Abstract:

The article deals with the issue of electricity demand forecasting as a complex, multi-step and iterative process. The process realization requires solving the wide range of social, economic and science-technical problems. The UP-DOWN method has been studied to solve the task of electricity demand forecasting in Ukraine. The general description of UP-DOWN method, presupposing electricity demand forecasting at the UP macro-level and the sectoral DOWN level as well as the peculiarities of its application. The impact factors, which can have influence on electricity demand and must be considered during calculations, were described.
The results of calculations of electricity demand up to 2030, obtained using UP-DOWN method, were described. The calculations were also compared with the baseline scenario of updated Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030 and the pessimistic scenario of the previous version of Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030.

Keywords: electricity, demand, forecasting, function, GDP electric intensity, electricity consumption, extrapolation.

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