The analysis of statistical characteristics and modeling of schedules of electric loadings with the account non-stationary process of electrosupply

Mikolaenko V.M.
Language: Ukrainian
Source: The Problems of General Energy, 2005, 1(12):32-39
Section: Systemic studies and complex problems of the energy sector
UDC: 621.314.214
Published: 07.12.2005


Clause is devoted to the analysis of existing methods of mathematical description of load diagram of industrial targets. In clause the analysis of using the mathematical device of the determined, casual processes for the description of modes of electrosupply is lead. The theoretical substantiation of using the description of load diagram of the mathematical device of non-stationary casual periodic processes is lead. On the basis of the several industrial enterprises the analysis of likelihood characteristics load diagram (the law of distribution load diagram, a population mean, a dispersion, correlation function) is lead. In the given work the analysis is lead and is proved, that likelihood characteristics load diagram change in time and is not a constant. The proved opportunity of use of the mathematical device periodic correlation of random processes for description load diagram, as one of adequate methods of description load diagram who takes into account his physical interpretation. The offered algorithm of reception of characteristics valid load diagram, which are based on one of the basic properties of linear periodic casual processes - ergodichnosti dispersions.

Keywords: non-stationary periodically casual process, a dispersion, a population mean, the multiplicative model, the smoothed estimations of a dispersion, linear periodic casual process, harmonization, correlation function, algorithm of fast transformation Furie.


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