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Operation Failed

Forecasting, systems analysis, and optimization of the structural development of the energy sector

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Azarov S.I., Sydorenko V.L., Zadunaj O.S. Analysis of scenarios for the development of nuclear power in Ukraine Azarov S.I., Sydorenko V.L., Zadunaj O.S. Analysis of scenarios for the development of nuclear power in Ukraine

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Board № (full): 1 (60) 2020 year
Filesize: 245.54 kB
Downloads: 426
We present results of the analysis of development of atomic generation in Ukraine in the context of substantiating ways to optimize country's electric power balance under conditions of decommissioning or extension of the life of existing nuclear power units of atomic power plants. It is emphasized that the nuclear power industry of Ukraine is a basic component in its energy supply, producing more than 40% of electricity. It is noted that the relevance of this topic is caused by the extreme importance of ensuring the energy safety of Ukraine, especially since nuclear power has become a decisive factor in Ukraine's uncompromising struggle for energy independence. The energy strategies of Ukraine and various scenarios of the development of nuclear power along with other energy-producing sectors are analyzed and compared. The restrictions and barriers hindering the development of nuclear power industry in our country are analyzed in detail. The main groups of barriers are presented according to the causes of their occurrence and the nature of manifestation, as well as other signs that must be taken into account when predicting the development of nuclear power. It is noted that the list of barriers can be supplemented, and their composition can be changed depending on the problem being solved and the hierarchical level under consideration. It is noted that the development of nuclear-power complex in Ukraine is taking place under conditions of the complication of its external and internal relationships, fundamental changes in the nature and structure of the economy, globalization, and acceleration of scientific and technological progress. According to the criteria of profitability, environmental friendliness, reliability, and provision with resources for the electric power industry, scenarios providing for the extension of life of nuclear power plants are much more acceptable than those providing for their decommissioning. It was determined that, among the important conditions for extending the life of nuclear power units, one should diversify the supply of fresh nuclear fuel.
Keywords: generating capacities, nuclear power, development scenarios, assessment, nuclear-power complex.

Kulyk M. M. Comparative Analysis of Technical and Economic Features of Kaniv PSPS and a Suite of Load-Controlled Consumers for Following Electrical Load Curves (Ukr.) Kulyk M. M. Comparative Analysis of Technical and Economic Features of Kaniv PSPS and a Suite of Load-Controlled Consumers for Following Electrical Load Curves (Ukr.)

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Board № (full): 4 (39) 2014 year
Filesize: 466.11 kB
Downloads: 6206
Calculations have been carried out and major technical and economic features of design of Kaniv Pumped Storage Power Station (PSPS) approved for construction in 2013 and an alternative proprietary design of a suite of heat pump plants (HPP), which is capable of replacing Kaniv PSPS in the structure of the Integrated Energy System of Ukraine in terms of its process characteristics, have been subjected to the comparative analysis.
It has been demonstrated that the alternative design of the construction of a suite of HPPs is undoubtedly better in comparison with the design of Kaniv PSPS in terms of the technical and economic indicators. For instance, it requires less capital investment (UAH 2,487.4 million USD 306б4 mln) less in 2012 prices), offers higher annual net profit (UAH 5,617.1 million USD 692 mln more) than the design of Kaniv PSPS, and brings the invested capital payback period to 1.55 years instead of 24.6 years under the said PSPS design.
The alternative project implementation makes it possible to reduce the natural gas consumption by boiler houses and cogeneration plants by 2.6 billion cubic metres (bcm), because HPPs make use of the electrical energy generated without gas. This feature is very important from the point of view of Ukraine’s energy security.
In addition, the alternative design calls for the annual consumption of 2.69 million tonnes of equivalent fuel in the form of the waste heat and ambient energy contributing to a major increase in its economic efficiency and a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other contaminant emissions. It entails no threats of the natural landscape disfigurement and the loss of historical monuments.

Keywords: PSPS, load-controlled consumer, heat pump plant, net profit, cost, capital investment, payback period.

Yeger D.O., Leshchenko I.Ch., Grishanenko V.P. Problems and prospects for the stabilization and growth of natural gas production in Ukraine Yeger D.O., Leshchenko I.Ch., Grishanenko V.P. Problems and prospects for the stabilization and growth of natural gas production in Ukraine

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Board № (full): 1 (56) 2019 year
Filesize: 482.07 kB
Downloads: 1123
We present the results of analysis of the resource base of gas production in Ukraine and structure of recoverable reserves, which showed that the structure of established resources affects not only the volumes but also the character of dynamics of natural gas production. It is proposed to consider separately the problems of stabilization of the volumes of natural gas production and the problems of increasing its production, because they differ significantly in technical and technological processes, the level of risks and expenses, and the timing of production.
Taking into account the complicated structure of Ukrainian natural gas reserves that are under development, the priority lines of work for the stabilization of production volumes have been formed. It is established that, due to the improvement of field-production systems, it is possible to provide only the compensation of their natural fall and to keep production at the current level of 20 – 21 billion m3 per year.
We show that an increase in natural gas production is possible only under conditions of rapid and efficient performing exploratory works for the accretion of recoverable reserves of natural gas in amounts of at least 40 – 50 billion m3 per year, which is possible only on the basis of the latest high-performance technological processes and methodological decisions of at least the average world level.
We analyzed the potential natural gas resources from various sources, including unconventional, and showed the need for development at the national level of individual programs of resources development for each of these sources with accelerated application of traditional, especially hard-to-recover reserves and resources.
We obtained estimates of the cost and duration of main stages of the application of natural gas resources and reserves, depending on the reserves of fields and reservoir depths. Finally, the possibility of full supply of Ukrainian consumers with domestic natural gas was estimated.
Keywords: natural gas, structure of reserves, stabilization of production, increase in production, production costs.

Bilodid V. D. Forecast of the structure of heat supply of Ukraine for the period till 2040 Bilodid V. D. Forecast of the structure of heat supply of Ukraine for the period till 2040

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Board № (full): 1 (44) 2016 year
Filesize: 2.86 MB
Downloads: 5462
Based on the analysis of the state of heat supply and hypothetical variant of the forecast of economic development of Ukraine, we substantiate the grounds for the reasonable strategy of the development of Ukrainian heating systems for the period till 2040. We propose the rational structure of heat-generating capacities of the country by two scenarios: excluding the occupied territories (AR of Crimea and certain parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions) and for the whole Ukraine. The development of this branch is proposed to be carried out mainly on the basis of wide using heatpump technologies and alternative types of fuel, which will lead to the reduction of natural gas consumption and heat production by boiler houses. According to scenario 1 (in the case of return of the occupied territories to Ukraine), it is estimated that the volume of heat energy generation in 2040 will reach 439.1 million Gcal. According to scenario 2 (in the case of non-return of the occupied territories to Ukraine), the estimated volume in 2040 will be by 80 million Gcal less.

Key words: strategy of development, heat supply, structure of capacities, heatpump, boiler houses, forecast.

Bodnja A. L. Coal Industry Development Model Bodnja A. L. Coal Industry Development Model

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Board № (full): 2 (3) 2000 year
Filesize: 136.06 kB
Downloads: 5998

The model of optimal operating and development of the coal industry as the basic branch of Ukraine's energy sector has been proposed in the article. The set of methods for model calculations has been developed.

Keywords: energy sector, mathematical model, coal industry.

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